A SIMPLIFIED (NONMATHEMATICAL) SUMMARY OVERVIEW OF THE PERSISTENCE OF OBSERVED LONG-TERM WARMING TRENDS AND EVENTS DEMONSTRATING GLOBAL CLIMATE INSTABILITY*
DrTom at 14:41 PM on 5 June, 2010
I am new here but
I am not new to the subject matter.
Pardon me for writing simply. I am retired and simplicity appeals to me.
It is becoming difficult to pretend nothing is happening. *Even if
we discard anthropogenic causation,
we cannot disregard our *observations.
The earth is getting warmer every year.
2010 is already the hottest year on record.
128.3°F was measured at the town of MohenjuDaro, Pakistan, on Wednesday, May 26.
As I write this, temperatures in parts of India are 125°F and both the
*flora and fauna are dying. How is that possible? Well, in fact, it IS possible.
The earth used to be much warmer than it is now.
Before humans existed.
Whether the fluctuation is natural or not doesn’t concern me any longer.
People will rationalize arguments that the ecosphere is not warming because they *don’t want to believe it is. Either way
the outcome is the same.
We are entering an extinction event.
We will last longer than Atlantic Bluefin tuna; they will be extinct within a couple of years. The human race may have 25 years left…or fifty…or ten.
Even assuming that we are simply at the beginning of the next natural Milankovitch warming cycle or, on a shorter scale, a Bond Event or a natural orbital perturbation or a solar max
*or for no discernible reason whatsoever, we can interpolate that the
*oceans will become net exporters of CO2 before 2040 *just as theforests are now. By that time we will have a
If we happen to be in one of the ‘abrupt’ climate changes, we can expect temperature increases within a few years to a few decades, depending on the causality,
*to increase right past the sweet spot at which humans can survive.
Potentially thirty to fifty degrees Fahrenheit warmer. We have an historical record of those sorts of temperatures. And that assumes
*the 20 BILLION tons ofCO2 we are happily pumping into the atmosphere annually is not a factor.
*That the 7 billion people on earth are not a factor.
*That the hydrological cycle is beginning to fluctuate is not a factor.
*That the annual loss of millions of Hectares of arable land to erosion and millions more to desertification are not factors.
Because, in fact, they are no longer factors if we have jumped the shark.
*The tropics have encroached into sub-tropical zones by four degrees of longitude in the recent past.
The weather, never predictable, was at least stable within recorded history. Now it isn’t.
*Now EVERY flood is a ‘hundred year’ or ‘thousand year’ flood.
*Now there are going to be hurricanes for which another level of intensity will have to be made. Category 6.
*Now the once-predictable seasons of the year are changing. Everywhere.
Given that weather is dynamic, I still defy anyone to tell me the weather where they are is not anomalous.
type of anomaly
and the direction of temperature variation at any given point
is of no import.
That we cannot account for some of the trapped heat merely means we don’t know where to look. It could be hiding in the AMO
but it could just as easily be involved in a previously unobserved chemical reaction of which we know nothing. My suspicion is that it is charging the clathrate gun but I do not care to debate postulates.
*Imagine a spinning top as a metaphor. As the rotation decreases, a wobble begins but it wobbles through it’s steady state enough that
*the wobble is barely noticeable.
During that period three observers could debate whether it is speeding up, slowing down or naturally imbalanced at a steady momentum.
*The only way to know is when it collapses.
Predicting the collapse event is not possible
*until it happens;
there is a real possibility that it might never collapse.
My belated point is this: If you live on Easter Island, cutting down coconut trees for the nuts might seem like a good idea
*until you have cut down the last one.
After that, further debate about whether to do it becomes meaningless.